They say I should have been monitoring ocean heat content and not atmospheric temperature. That is why the IPCC has been compelled to reduce its central near-term global warming prediction from a rate equivalent to 2.78 Cº/century then to 1.67 Cº/century equivalent now. The world has been warming at exactly half the predicted rate, and the trend falls wholly outwith the prediction interval (orange region). Predictions from the IPCC’s First Assessment Report compared with outturn since 1990 (RSS & UAH).
If its predictions had been correct, there should have been two-thirds of a degree of global warming since then, but in the real world where the rest of us live there has only been one-third of a degree of warming (Fig. So let us oblige Them by going back to the IPCC’s First Assessment Report in 1990. However, They do not like to look at temperature change over such short periods. However, observed temperature (mean of the RSS and UAH monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly datasets) (thick blue trend-line) has if anything declined a little since that date. IPCC (2013) (orange region) predicted that there should have been a sixth of a Celsius degree of global warming since January 2005 (thick red trend-line). Yet compared with little more than nine years ago the IPCC predicts that the weather should now be a sixth of a Celsius degree warmer than it is (Fig. Since January 2005, the data from which the IPCC’s latest Assessment Report starts its backcast predictions, there has been no global warming at all. Whether They like it or not, there is a large, growing and – for Them – embarrassing discrepancy between the predictions made by “Settled Science” and the inconvenient truth that over no period of ten years or more since the IPCC’s first report in 1990 has global warming ever occurred at anything like the predicted rate. These Pause Deniers are not at all happy that the global temperature record shows no global warming for well over 13 years (mean of all five global-temperature datasets). They are particularly offended by my reproducing the real-world temperature data, determining the trend on the data, and daring to publish the inconvenient truth every month. The first of the eight “pseudoscientific arguments” of which They accuse us is that the Earth has not been warming recently. Just illogic piled upon illogic, fallacy upon fallacy. So far, no science at all from the “Real Scientists”. That is the argument from appeal to authority. They say They “gathered eight of the most common pseudoscientific arguments” advanced by skeptics and “asked some serious climate scientists … to help us understand what makes these claims so misleading”. They go on to say that the climate issue is “settled in the scientific community”. They begin by saying: “Most people who deny that human activity is warming the planet just dismiss a massive body of scientific evidence as a big hoax.” That is mere yah-boo – another instance of the red-herring fallacy. Instead, let us scrutinize the “science” put forward by this self-appointed soviet of “Real Scientists”.
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The article is full of ad-hom whining – the most childish form of that most infantile of all logical fallacies, the red-herring fallacy, the totalitarians’ customary substitute for serious scientific argument. The intellectual dishonesty of the Thermageddonites is well demonstrated in a particularly fatuous piece entitled Eight Pseudoscientific Climate Claims Debunked by Real Scientists at the hand-wringing-and-hysteria website.
Guest Essay By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
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